It’s the Ashes in Australia and that is a series England have become used to losing, so much so that even Jimmy Anderson, the greatest English Test wicket‑taker of all time, has the home side as favourites. But if Australia have ever been there for the taking, it is now. Looking at how the two sides are shaping up before the opening game I feel punchy about England’s chances: the team are strong, settled, and I think that if Ben Stokes plays all five Tests they will win the Ashes and win them comfortably. I can’t remember ever being so confident before an away Ashes.
That confidence is based on a strong group of seamers and a top seven that have now played a lot of Test cricket and have a lot of runs under their belt. They will look at an opposition that will be without the injured Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood in Perth and fancy their chances of racking up runs. Once you do that, you’re bossing the game.
Of course over the years England haven’t won many times in Australia, so the data says they are up against it. But if you actually look at the two teams, the mentality and confidence that England have, and an opposition in transition, you see something different.
I can’t remember seeing an Australia side in such disarray: it looks like a 31-year-old debutant will open the batting alongside a 38‑year‑old in decline; the absence of Cummins means they are without their hugely influential captain, an excellent bowler who can bat, a leader who sets the tone for the side; and now they have also lost Hazlewood, their Mr Consistent, who rarely leaks runs, who gives them control.
They hope both will return for the second Test in Brisbane, but how much workload will they be able to sustain? Will they be able to guarantee their ability to bowl 20 overs in the first innings, then come back and do it again in the second? Their frailty ramps up the pressure on Mitchell Starc, who turns 36 in January and can’t be relied upon to play all five matches – something he managed against India last year, but before that only once since 2015.
Australia have a couple of important strengths. Nathan Lyon is one and, though it is very rare for pitches in Australia to give him much help, he is such an obvious advantage that they will do everything they can to get him in the game. England certainly don’t have a spinner who can hold a candle to him. But I expect the tourists to challenge him with real aggression, and they have the batters, players such as Joe Root, Harry Brook and Zak Crawley, to win those battles. Against the kind of batting he is likely to face he’ll need to put some scouts out to protect the boundaries, and that means cheap singles. England can force Australia to spread the field, and Lyon won’t be able to dictate proceedings.
Then there’s Steve Smith, who will captain Australia in the opening Test and is their one batter of undoubted form and class. There’s a lot riding on his shoulders and he will know he has to produce big time. Eight years ago, when I was with the England team as a batting coach, we just couldn’t get him out. He never gives his wicket away – and that’s the big difference between him and some of the Bazball exponents.
The first Test is absolutely key and England have a chance to impose themselves against weakened opposition. With their mentality, it is a challenge they will relish. More than likely it’s going to be a good pitch: England will enjoy batting on it and then their bowlers will get to work. Mark Wood has now been passed fit after a hamstring injury scare but to me the first two guys on the team sheet are Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse, and if Wood and Jofra Archer can play three games each it would be a wonderful bonus.
But I am a bit concerned by England’s preparations. I toured Australia as a player in 1998-99 and a coach in 2017-18 and in both of those we started with several four‑day, first-class matches. As the outcomes of those tours show, that is no guarantee of success, and these games have often failed to replicate the conditions or the standard of opposition that is coming in the Tests. But still, players get familiar with the Kookaburra ball, and with batting, bowling and fielding in the heat for extended periods.
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They are first-class games, so a batter knows they can’t just skim one to cover and get away with it – they have to get their game‑head on. The kind of approach we saw from Brook against the Lions last week wouldn’t be acceptable: he is about to embark on the biggest series of his career, any time in the middle is valuable, and after a few minutes he hares down the pitch and gives away his wicket. The bowlers must bowl a spell, field for perhaps an hour and then come back and bowl again, knowing there will be consequences if they bowl a bad ball. When players talk about the value of warmup matches, that is what they mean.
Stokes talked about playing “balls to the wall” cricket against the Lions – I’ve no idea what that means but I’m pretty sure we didn’t witness it. It is true that the schedule no longer allows the kind of preparation teams used to take for granted, but I think England would have benefited from playing a first-class game against a state side and not a runout in the park against the reserves.
But, still, I am hugely excited about what is ahead. I always thought that the best thing about being a professional player was the travelling – and it doesn’t come any better for an English cricketer than touring Australia. What an opportunity this team have now, what a chance to seize the initiative in Perth – and then go and get the Ashes.